The 85th Annual Academy Awards Predictions

The 85th Annual Academy Awards: Who Will/Should Win

Tonight is the 85th Annual Academy Awards.  I have hopes that this will be a really entertaining telecast.  Seth MacFarlane is hosting.  He is the creator of Family Guy, American Dad, and The Cleveland Show.  And of course, the hit summer comedy, Ted.  He is an odd choice and it seems they are desperately trying to lure in younger viewers.  I think he will do a great job.  He will bring the edge, but he has an appreciation for old Hollywood, that I think he will also bring to the Kodak stage.  We also have the Oscar debut of Adele, who will be performing her probably Oscar winning original song, "Skyfall," a tribute to James Bond, and the cast of Les Misérables performing together.  Now, without further adieu, here are my Oscar predictions, who I think will win and who I think should win.

Best Picture

Amour

Argo

Beasts of the Southern Wild

Django Unchained

Les Misérables

Life of Pi

Lincoln

Silver Linings Playbook

Zero Dark Thirty

Will Win:  Argo.  Turns out a Best Director snub was the best  thing that could have happened to Ben Affleck.  His movie has won the majority of the pre-Oscar prizes, so expect it to take top honors tonight.
Should Win:  Silver Linings Playbook.  I've seen it twice and each time I get something new from it.  The Academy must agree since all four leads are nominated and Jennifer Lawrence is the favorite to take home the Best Actress statuette.

Actor in a Leading Role

Bradley Cooper in Silver Linings Playbook

Daniel Day-Lewis in Lincoln

Hugh Jackman in Les Misérables

Joaquin Phoenix in The Master

Denzel Washington in Flight

Will/Should Win:  Daniel Day-Lewis.  Come on.  There is no way that Day-Lewis won't walk away tonight with his third Oscar in this category.  He embodied our 16th President in a way that I have never seen another actor do.  His dedication will be rewarded tonight.

Actor in a Supporting Role

Alan Arkin in Argo

Robert De Niro in Silver Linings Playbook

Philip Seymour Hoffman in The Master

Tommy Lee Jones in Lincoln

Christoph Waltz in Django Unchained

Will Win:  Robert De Niro.  It seems like it has been a long time since Robert De Niro has made a legit good movie.  In SLP, he reminds audiences and voters of the actor who made The Deer Hunter, Taxi Driver, and Raging Bull, rather than the actor from the Focker movies.

Should Win:  Tommy Lee Jones.  In a movie packed with powerhouse performances, it was Jones' that really stuck with me.  He was fiery and full of passion and was a great counterpart for Day-Lewis' quiet, subtle, more introspective performance.

Actress in a Leading Role

Jessica Chastain in Zero Dark Thirty

Jennifer Lawrence in Silver Linings Playbook

Emmanuelle Riva in Amour

Quvenzhané Wallis in Beasts of the Southern Wild

Naomi Watts in The Impossible

Will Win/Should Win:  Jennifer Lawrence.  The 22-year-old showed poise and grit as the lonely, slightly messed up widow in Silver Linings Playbook.  Lawrence lost her first Oscar, but I have a feeling she will pick this up.  There are two potential spoilers: Jessica Chastain and Emmanuelle Riva, who turns 86 on Oscar night.

Actress in a Supporting Role

Amy Adams in The Master

Sally Field in Lincoln

Anne Hathaway in Les Misérables

Helen Hunt in The Sessions

Jacki Weaver in Silver Linings Playbook

Will/Should Win:  Anne Hathaway.  Along with Day-Lewis, this is the closet thing to an Oscar night sure thing.  Hathaway has pretty much swept the pre-Oscar prizes, so expect her to pick this up tonight and deservedly so.  

Animated Feature Film

Brave

Frankenweenie

ParaNorman

The Pirates! Band of Misfits

Wreck-It Ralph

Will/Should Win:  Wreck-It Ralph.  Brave is a touching, powerful mother/daughter story, but I think the Oscar will go to the video game fantasy about a guy who isn't bad, he's just pixelated that way.

Directing

Amour - Michael Haneke

Beasts of the Southern Wild - Benh Zeitlin

Life of Pi - Ang Lee

Lincoln - Steven Spielberg

Silver Linings Playbook - David O. Russell

Will Win:  Ang Lee.  This is a tough category, because some of the most deserving directors like Ben Affleck and Kathryn Bigelow were snubbed.  Lee had a tough job.  He had to direct kids, water, animals, real and fake and he pulled it off.  The book was called 'unfilmable', so I think the voters will reward him for this accomplishment.

Should Win:  David O. Russell.  SLP is the best movie I saw all year.  I have seen it twice and each time I've watched it, I see new things.  The nuances and the performances that Russell coaxes out of all of his main characters are phenomenal.  I'm hoping that he pulls it out.

Music (Original Song)

"Before My Time" from Chasing Ice; music and lyric by J. Ralph

"Everybody Needs a Best Friend" from Ted; music by Walter Murphy, lyric by Seth Macfarlane

"Pi's Lullaby" from Life of Pi; music by Michael Danna, lyric by Bombay Jayashri

"Skyfall" from Skyfall; music and lyric by Adele Adkins and Paul Epworth

"Suddenly" from Les Misérables; music by Claude Michel-Schoenberg, lyric by Herbert Kretzmer & Alain Boublil

Will/Should Win: Adele.  James Bond.  'Nuff said.

So, there you go.  Watch the Oscars tonight, then come back here and berate me for all the ones I got wrong, or praise me for the ones I got right.  Enjoy.